Interest rates started rising over one and a half years ago and the effects of a higher cost of money have since permeated all aspects of the economy. A slow-motion slowdown is ongoing, with the consumer facing multiple pressures due to higher inflation and higher borrowing costs.
Goods-producing industries have already weakened, and service-related spending is now expected to follow suit after surging in recent years. The strong labour market has supported confidence and spending until now, but it is beginning to lose steam. Meanwhile, expansionary fiscal policies continue to prop up economic activity.
Central banks in advanced countries are nearing the end of their tightening cycle since inflation is now on a general downward trajectory.
The heavily indebted Chinese economy is slowing down. The reverberations are felt globally, particularly impacting export-driven countries such as Germany.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index had a -2.2% return this quarter. The weakness was broad-based, with 9 out of 11 sectors retreating.
Interest rates rose and hurt the high dividend paying Communications Services (-13%) and Utilities (-12%) sectors, as well as the growth-oriented Information Technology (-8%) sector.
The small Healthcare (+14%) sector did well. Cannabis producers rebounded from depressed levels, with Tilray surging 58% as a marijuana banking bill progressed through the U.S. Senate. The other positive sector was Energy (+10%), where oil and gas producers performed well due to oil prices increasing 29% thanks to effective supply management by OPEC countries.
Triasima Canadian All Capitalization Equity Fund had a -1.4% return this quarter.
Security selection and sector allocation both contributed slightly to added value, with the effect spread-out across sectors. Standing out were the positive security selection in Materials, and the negative one in Health Care.
Main security contributors to relative performance :
|
Positive impact |
Negative impact |
|
Cameco Corp. |
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd |
|
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd |
Shawcor Ltd |
|
North American Const. Grp Inc. |
Suncor Energy Inc.* |
|
Parkland Corp. |
Cenovus Energy Inc.* |
|
Prairiesky Royalty Inc. |
Viemed Healthcare Inc. |
*Securities not held in the fund.
The weightings of the cyclical Financials sector (falling profitability) and of the Information Technology and Communications Services sectors (rising interest rates) were all decreased. The Energy sector was added to. Relative to this strategy’s history, sector weights and style factors deviations relative to the benchmark are below average.
On the quantitative side, the Fund has superior expectations and profitability parameters and higher revenues and profits growth than the benchmark, while the beta measure is higher.
The Canadian equity market has had a seesawing sideways trend so far in 2023, with some weakness late this quarter. The Profitability, Earnings variability and Beta factors outperformed while the Financial leverage factor lagged.
The fundamental background to Canadian equities has remained stable. Interest rates rose and the gradual economic slowdown carries on, but this is largely offset by falling inflation and the slower pace of the profitability expectations decline. The equity return outlook appears average for the remainder of 2023 but is good for 2024.